By my count, Tech's defense returns guys with 258 career starts under their belt (all of them at a P5 school). This is obviously a bizarre year with "Super Seniors", but this will be one of the oldest / most experienced defenses in college football history.
It's hard to find career start numbers from prior seasons, but Phil Steele claims that one of the oldest in history was Florida's 2009 defense at 241 career starts. In 2016, the most returning starts on defense in the Big 12 was Iowa State at 140. Tech's 2020 defense appears to have returned 168 starts and Tech's 2018 defense returned 154. The worst defense in the history of modern college football (Tech 2016) returned 90 starts.
If you took Tech's 2021 defense by itself and compared it to both sides of the ball for Big 12 teams in 2016, the 2021 Tech defense would've ranked 2nd in career starts.
Tech's defense this year will have major contributions from 9 different guys who are in their 5th or 6th year of college football. They will probably get even older as we add one or two more guys from the transfer portal.
Tech's 2020 defense allowed 2.54 points per drive, slightly worse than the 2.43 points per drive that Tech allowed in 2019. Of course, 2019 played two other non-conference games, one of which (@ Zona) was one of the best defensive performances that we've seen.
Even though the 2020 defense allowed slightly more points per drive, Brian Fremeau (basically the Kenpom of CFB), ranked Tech's defense as 53rd in the country. That's the best it's been since the 2013 defense ranked 50th.
Here's a look at some of the biggest statistical differences between the 2019 & 2020 defenses.
Early Down - yards per play
On "early downs", Tech's 2019 defense allowed 6.5 yards per play. Only 11 P5 teams allowed more. Tech's 2020 defense allowed just 5.3 yards per "early down." Only 11 P5 teams allowed fewer (all of them really good defenses).
Percentage of drives that Averaged 7+ or 10+ yards per play:
19% of the drives against Tech's 2019 defense averaged 10 or more yards per play. That was 107th in the country. 36% of the drives against the 2019 defense averaged 7+ yards per play (114th in the country).
The 2020 defense was exponentially better at limiting explosive plays. Only 10.3% of our opponents' drives averaged 10+ yards per play (25th in the country) & only 23.3% of opponents' drives averaged 7+ yards per play (31st in the country).
Average 3rd Down Distance
Because the 2019 defense was so aggressive, teams found themselves in longer 3rd down situations. The average 3rd down distance against Tech's 2019 defense was 7.8 yards, with only 11 P5 defenses forcing offenses into longer 3rd downs.
The 2020 defense averaged 6.6 yards per 3rd down, which was only better than 20 P5 teams.
3rd Down Success Rate.
Even though the 2020 defense faced shorter 3rd down situations, it was much better at forcing a 4th down play than the 2019 defense. In 2019, Tech's defense allowed a first down on 46% of 3rd downs, which was 7th worst among P5 teams.
The 2020 defense forced a 4th down play on 61% of 3rd downs, which was about middle of the pack among P5 teams.
Defending the Slot
According to PFF, the cornerbacks & safetys on Tech's 2019 defense allowed 1150 yards receiving on 91 pass attempts to slot receivers. The cornerbacks & safetys on the 2020 Tech defense allowed just 651 yards on 81 pass attempts to slot receivers. I don't know the cause for this discrepancy in defending the slot, but it would be nice for that trend to continue.
Outlook for 2021 Season
There was seemingly a huge philosophical shift from Patterson's 2019 defense and the 2020 defense. The 2019 defense was aggressive, forcing a lot of negative plays and giving up a lot of 70 yard TD passes in the process. Last year's defense seemed a little more passive. I'll let someone smarter than me figure out what it was specifically that we did differently from an Xs & Os standpoint.... whatever we did differently produced much better results.
Brian Fremeau also has a method of taking the final score differential and attributing it to a team's offense, defense, or special teams. For example, if the offense throws an interception, it's returned all the way to the 2 yard line, and TD is given up on the next play.... the offense is going to get assigned -6 or so points, while the defense would only receive -1.
Tech's 2019 defense (conference games only) had a -68.7 effect on Tech's overall scoring differential. The 2020 defense (despite facing slightly more conference possessions) had only a -26.6 effect on Tech's overall scoring differential, with nearly all of that coming from the OU game.
This might be the easiest schedule Tech will play in a long, long time. It's an odd calendar year, which means we don't waste two Big 12 home games on UT/OU (see winning records in 2013 / 2015 / 2017 v losing records in 2014 / 2016 / 2018 / 2020). We also don't play a P5 team during non-conference. I'm very confident that this will be the best defense Tech will field since at least 2013, but probably even better than that one. There's also a lot of smart football people that think Tech's QB is in the top 3-5 best in the country for his draft class.
So... best defense in a decade + easiest schedule for foreseeable future + most talented QB1 in a long, long time = ???
If we are ever going to win 8 games again, it sure seems like it's this year or never.
It's hard to find career start numbers from prior seasons, but Phil Steele claims that one of the oldest in history was Florida's 2009 defense at 241 career starts. In 2016, the most returning starts on defense in the Big 12 was Iowa State at 140. Tech's 2020 defense appears to have returned 168 starts and Tech's 2018 defense returned 154. The worst defense in the history of modern college football (Tech 2016) returned 90 starts.
If you took Tech's 2021 defense by itself and compared it to both sides of the ball for Big 12 teams in 2016, the 2021 Tech defense would've ranked 2nd in career starts.
Tech's defense this year will have major contributions from 9 different guys who are in their 5th or 6th year of college football. They will probably get even older as we add one or two more guys from the transfer portal.
Tech's 2020 defense allowed 2.54 points per drive, slightly worse than the 2.43 points per drive that Tech allowed in 2019. Of course, 2019 played two other non-conference games, one of which (@ Zona) was one of the best defensive performances that we've seen.
Even though the 2020 defense allowed slightly more points per drive, Brian Fremeau (basically the Kenpom of CFB), ranked Tech's defense as 53rd in the country. That's the best it's been since the 2013 defense ranked 50th.
Here's a look at some of the biggest statistical differences between the 2019 & 2020 defenses.
Early Down - yards per play
On "early downs", Tech's 2019 defense allowed 6.5 yards per play. Only 11 P5 teams allowed more. Tech's 2020 defense allowed just 5.3 yards per "early down." Only 11 P5 teams allowed fewer (all of them really good defenses).
Percentage of drives that Averaged 7+ or 10+ yards per play:
19% of the drives against Tech's 2019 defense averaged 10 or more yards per play. That was 107th in the country. 36% of the drives against the 2019 defense averaged 7+ yards per play (114th in the country).
The 2020 defense was exponentially better at limiting explosive plays. Only 10.3% of our opponents' drives averaged 10+ yards per play (25th in the country) & only 23.3% of opponents' drives averaged 7+ yards per play (31st in the country).
Average 3rd Down Distance
Because the 2019 defense was so aggressive, teams found themselves in longer 3rd down situations. The average 3rd down distance against Tech's 2019 defense was 7.8 yards, with only 11 P5 defenses forcing offenses into longer 3rd downs.
The 2020 defense averaged 6.6 yards per 3rd down, which was only better than 20 P5 teams.
3rd Down Success Rate.
Even though the 2020 defense faced shorter 3rd down situations, it was much better at forcing a 4th down play than the 2019 defense. In 2019, Tech's defense allowed a first down on 46% of 3rd downs, which was 7th worst among P5 teams.
The 2020 defense forced a 4th down play on 61% of 3rd downs, which was about middle of the pack among P5 teams.
Defending the Slot
According to PFF, the cornerbacks & safetys on Tech's 2019 defense allowed 1150 yards receiving on 91 pass attempts to slot receivers. The cornerbacks & safetys on the 2020 Tech defense allowed just 651 yards on 81 pass attempts to slot receivers. I don't know the cause for this discrepancy in defending the slot, but it would be nice for that trend to continue.
Outlook for 2021 Season
There was seemingly a huge philosophical shift from Patterson's 2019 defense and the 2020 defense. The 2019 defense was aggressive, forcing a lot of negative plays and giving up a lot of 70 yard TD passes in the process. Last year's defense seemed a little more passive. I'll let someone smarter than me figure out what it was specifically that we did differently from an Xs & Os standpoint.... whatever we did differently produced much better results.
Brian Fremeau also has a method of taking the final score differential and attributing it to a team's offense, defense, or special teams. For example, if the offense throws an interception, it's returned all the way to the 2 yard line, and TD is given up on the next play.... the offense is going to get assigned -6 or so points, while the defense would only receive -1.
Tech's 2019 defense (conference games only) had a -68.7 effect on Tech's overall scoring differential. The 2020 defense (despite facing slightly more conference possessions) had only a -26.6 effect on Tech's overall scoring differential, with nearly all of that coming from the OU game.
This might be the easiest schedule Tech will play in a long, long time. It's an odd calendar year, which means we don't waste two Big 12 home games on UT/OU (see winning records in 2013 / 2015 / 2017 v losing records in 2014 / 2016 / 2018 / 2020). We also don't play a P5 team during non-conference. I'm very confident that this will be the best defense Tech will field since at least 2013, but probably even better than that one. There's also a lot of smart football people that think Tech's QB is in the top 3-5 best in the country for his draft class.
So... best defense in a decade + easiest schedule for foreseeable future + most talented QB1 in a long, long time = ???
If we are ever going to win 8 games again, it sure seems like it's this year or never.
