Warning, this is gonna be kinda long. And I guess it's kinda pro-Wells, but please don't murder me for it.
So I wanted to look a bit at Well's Tenure at Utah State, particularly his losses, since the three losing seasons from 2017 to 2015 are problematic. While, obviously, a losing record is not a great thing, for there don't appear to be a ton of "bad" losses in there, and given Utah State's position in the world, they are usually staring at at least one, and maybe two losses as a result of Non-Conference games (indeed, 12 of his 34 losses came to OOC games against a Power 5 or BYU team). There are definitely some stinkers in there, though, like losing by 13 at home to a 7-6 Colorado State team, or getting blown out almost every year by Boise State, or losing a bowl game to New Mexico State. Here's the year-by-year breakdown:
2018: Currently 10-2. Losses:
38-31 @Michigan State - Currently 7-5, and was 11th in the AP poll at the time the game was played
33-24 @Boise State - Currently 10-2, and is currently 19th in the AP poll
2017: Went 6-7. Losses:
59-10 @Wisconsin - Went 13-1, and was 7th in the Final AP poll (ranked #3 prior to Big Ten Championship loss to Ohio State)
46-10 @Wake Forest - Went 8-5, and beat A&M in the Belk Bowl
27-14 Colorado State - Went 7-6
28-23 Wyoming - Went 8-5
41-14 Boise State - Went 11-3, and was 22nd in the Final AP poll
38-35 @Air Force - Went 5-7
26-20 vNew Mexico State (in the Arizona Bowl) - Went 7-6
2016: Went 3-9. Losses:
45-7 @USC - Went 10-3, and was 3rd in Final AP Poll
27-20 Air Force - Went 10-3
21-10 @Boise State - Went 10-3, beating Wazzu, and ranked as high as 13 mid-season
31-24 @Colorado State - Went 7-6
40-13 San Diego State - Went 11-3, and was 25th in the Final AP Poll. Beat Houston in the Bowl Game in Applewhite's first game as HC.
52-28 @Wyoming - Went 8-6, winning its division in the MWC
24-21 New Mexico - Went 9-4
38-37 @Nevada - Went 5-7
28-10 @BYU - Went 9-4, with each loss by 3 points or less
2015: Went 6-7. Losses:
24-14 @Utah - Went 10-3, and was 17th in the Final AP Poll (got as high as #3 in Week 7).
31-17 @Washington - Went 7-6 in Chris Peterson's second year
48-14 @San Diego State - Went 11-3 (although somehow never ranked)
14-13 @New Mexico - Went 7-6
35-28 @Air Force - Went 8-6
51-28 BYU - Went 9-4 in Bronco Mendenhall's final year
23-21 vAkron (in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl) - Went 8-5
2014: Went 10-4. Losses:
38-7 @Tennessee - Went 7-6
21-14 @Arkansas State - Went 7-6
34-16 @Colorado State - Went 10-3, and ranked 21st in the AP Poll near the end of the year.
50-19 @Boise State - Went 12-2, and was 16th in the Final AP Poll
2013: Went 9-5. Losses:
30-26 @Utah - Went 5-7, but beat #5 Stanford
17-14 @USC - Went 10-4, and ranked 19th in the Final AP Poll
31-14 BYU - Went 8-5
34-24 Boise State - Went 8-5, in Chris Peterson's Final Year
24-17 @Fresno State (in the MWC Championship) - Went 11-2, and ranked as high as #15
Additionally, Well's results at Utah State, compared to Kliff's tenure here, seem to me to be a step up, specifically because he (1) generally loses fewer games at home, and (2) generally doesn't lose to teams with losing records. Here's a comparison of those two specifically:
Well's Home Losses - 9 (4 blowouts by more than 2 scores):
2018 - None.
2017 - 3 - Colorado State (7-6), lost 27-14; Wyoming (8-5), lost 28-23, Boise State (11-3), lost 41-14.
2016 - 3 - Air Force (10-3), lost 27-20; San Diego State (11-3), lost 40-13; New Mexico (9-4), lost 24-21.
2015 - 1 - BYU (9-4), lost 51-28.
2014 - None.
2013 - 2 - BYU (8-5), lost 31-14; Boise State (8-5), lost 34-24.
Kliff's Home Losses - 18 (8 blowouts by more than 2 scores):
2018 - 3 - WVU (8-3), lost 42-34; OU (11-1), lost 51-46; UT (9-3), lost 41-34.
2017 - 4 - OSU (10-3), lost 41-34; ISU (8-5), lost 31-13; KSU (8-5), lost 42-35; TCU (11-3), lost 27-3.
2016 - 3 - WVU (10-3), lost 48-17; OU (11-2), lost 66-59; UT (5-7), lost 45-37.
2015 - 2 - TCU (11-2), lost 55-52; OSU (10-3), lost 70-53.
2014 - 4 - Arkie (7-6), lost 49-28; WVU (7-6), lost 37-34; UT (6-7), lost 34-13; OU (8-5), lost 42-30.
2013 - 2 - OSU (10-3), lost 52-34; KSU (8-5), lost 49-26.
Well's Losses to Losing Teams - 3 (average margin of loss - 3 points):
2018 - None.
2017 - 1 - @Air Force (5-7), lost 38-35.
2016 - 1 - @Nevada (5-7), lost 38-37.
2015 - None.
2014 - None.
2013 - 1 - @Utah (5-7), lost 30-26.
Kliff's Losses to Losing Teams - 6 (average margin of loss - 22 points)
2018 - 2 (might be 3 after Bowls) - Ole Miss (5-7), lost 47-27; @KSU (5-7), lost 21-6 (May add after Bowls BU (6-6), lost 35-24).
2017 - None.
2016 - 3 - @ASU (5-7), lost 68-55; UT (5-7), lost 45-37, @ISU (3-9), lost 66-10.
2015 - None.
2014 - 1 - UT (6-7), lost 34-13.
2013 - None.
So I wanted to look a bit at Well's Tenure at Utah State, particularly his losses, since the three losing seasons from 2017 to 2015 are problematic. While, obviously, a losing record is not a great thing, for there don't appear to be a ton of "bad" losses in there, and given Utah State's position in the world, they are usually staring at at least one, and maybe two losses as a result of Non-Conference games (indeed, 12 of his 34 losses came to OOC games against a Power 5 or BYU team). There are definitely some stinkers in there, though, like losing by 13 at home to a 7-6 Colorado State team, or getting blown out almost every year by Boise State, or losing a bowl game to New Mexico State. Here's the year-by-year breakdown:
2018: Currently 10-2. Losses:
38-31 @Michigan State - Currently 7-5, and was 11th in the AP poll at the time the game was played
33-24 @Boise State - Currently 10-2, and is currently 19th in the AP poll
2017: Went 6-7. Losses:
59-10 @Wisconsin - Went 13-1, and was 7th in the Final AP poll (ranked #3 prior to Big Ten Championship loss to Ohio State)
46-10 @Wake Forest - Went 8-5, and beat A&M in the Belk Bowl
27-14 Colorado State - Went 7-6
28-23 Wyoming - Went 8-5
41-14 Boise State - Went 11-3, and was 22nd in the Final AP poll
38-35 @Air Force - Went 5-7
26-20 vNew Mexico State (in the Arizona Bowl) - Went 7-6
2016: Went 3-9. Losses:
45-7 @USC - Went 10-3, and was 3rd in Final AP Poll
27-20 Air Force - Went 10-3
21-10 @Boise State - Went 10-3, beating Wazzu, and ranked as high as 13 mid-season
31-24 @Colorado State - Went 7-6
40-13 San Diego State - Went 11-3, and was 25th in the Final AP Poll. Beat Houston in the Bowl Game in Applewhite's first game as HC.
52-28 @Wyoming - Went 8-6, winning its division in the MWC
24-21 New Mexico - Went 9-4
38-37 @Nevada - Went 5-7
28-10 @BYU - Went 9-4, with each loss by 3 points or less
2015: Went 6-7. Losses:
24-14 @Utah - Went 10-3, and was 17th in the Final AP Poll (got as high as #3 in Week 7).
31-17 @Washington - Went 7-6 in Chris Peterson's second year
48-14 @San Diego State - Went 11-3 (although somehow never ranked)
14-13 @New Mexico - Went 7-6
35-28 @Air Force - Went 8-6
51-28 BYU - Went 9-4 in Bronco Mendenhall's final year
23-21 vAkron (in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl) - Went 8-5
2014: Went 10-4. Losses:
38-7 @Tennessee - Went 7-6
21-14 @Arkansas State - Went 7-6
34-16 @Colorado State - Went 10-3, and ranked 21st in the AP Poll near the end of the year.
50-19 @Boise State - Went 12-2, and was 16th in the Final AP Poll
2013: Went 9-5. Losses:
30-26 @Utah - Went 5-7, but beat #5 Stanford
17-14 @USC - Went 10-4, and ranked 19th in the Final AP Poll
31-14 BYU - Went 8-5
34-24 Boise State - Went 8-5, in Chris Peterson's Final Year
24-17 @Fresno State (in the MWC Championship) - Went 11-2, and ranked as high as #15
Additionally, Well's results at Utah State, compared to Kliff's tenure here, seem to me to be a step up, specifically because he (1) generally loses fewer games at home, and (2) generally doesn't lose to teams with losing records. Here's a comparison of those two specifically:
Well's Home Losses - 9 (4 blowouts by more than 2 scores):
2018 - None.
2017 - 3 - Colorado State (7-6), lost 27-14; Wyoming (8-5), lost 28-23, Boise State (11-3), lost 41-14.
2016 - 3 - Air Force (10-3), lost 27-20; San Diego State (11-3), lost 40-13; New Mexico (9-4), lost 24-21.
2015 - 1 - BYU (9-4), lost 51-28.
2014 - None.
2013 - 2 - BYU (8-5), lost 31-14; Boise State (8-5), lost 34-24.
Kliff's Home Losses - 18 (8 blowouts by more than 2 scores):
2018 - 3 - WVU (8-3), lost 42-34; OU (11-1), lost 51-46; UT (9-3), lost 41-34.
2017 - 4 - OSU (10-3), lost 41-34; ISU (8-5), lost 31-13; KSU (8-5), lost 42-35; TCU (11-3), lost 27-3.
2016 - 3 - WVU (10-3), lost 48-17; OU (11-2), lost 66-59; UT (5-7), lost 45-37.
2015 - 2 - TCU (11-2), lost 55-52; OSU (10-3), lost 70-53.
2014 - 4 - Arkie (7-6), lost 49-28; WVU (7-6), lost 37-34; UT (6-7), lost 34-13; OU (8-5), lost 42-30.
2013 - 2 - OSU (10-3), lost 52-34; KSU (8-5), lost 49-26.
Well's Losses to Losing Teams - 3 (average margin of loss - 3 points):
2018 - None.
2017 - 1 - @Air Force (5-7), lost 38-35.
2016 - 1 - @Nevada (5-7), lost 38-37.
2015 - None.
2014 - None.
2013 - 1 - @Utah (5-7), lost 30-26.
Kliff's Losses to Losing Teams - 6 (average margin of loss - 22 points)
2018 - 2 (might be 3 after Bowls) - Ole Miss (5-7), lost 47-27; @KSU (5-7), lost 21-6 (May add after Bowls BU (6-6), lost 35-24).
2017 - None.
2016 - 3 - @ASU (5-7), lost 68-55; UT (5-7), lost 45-37, @ISU (3-9), lost 66-10.
2015 - None.
2014 - 1 - UT (6-7), lost 34-13.
2013 - None.
