Well unfortunately, I was 1-0 last week as my line was -10.2 and the official line was -7.5 at open if you took KSU. My rule is that if my line is greater than 1 point either direction to Vegas, then you play that game.
So this week, as much as last week sucked, I have OSU -7.1. Line opened at -13.5 and moved to -10.5 currently so I'd still take Tech. If the line was at 13.5 still, I probably would have teased OSU down just for the extra odds.
Why do I have Tech at -7.1? Because as vaunted as OSU's D is, through 5 games they are significantly worse than last years. Last years OSU D had an EPA of .046 and a rushing EPA of -.031. Means that if you were to run against them last year, it was a losing proposition. You could throw but it wasn't easy. This year, OSU D has an EPA of .126 and a rushing EPA of .005. Still tough to run but they are significantly easier to throw against with an passing EPA of .243.
Their offense is better than last years, but it's all passing with OSU O having a passing EPA of .461. So just like last week, but the opposite, if you can force them to run on offense you can have a good chance of shutting down the their O. Our offense is actually, from an EPA standpoint, better and more well rounded than OSU's O. It's also not as one dimensional, especially if we could feed the backs more (like we were doing in the second and third quarters).
Bottom line, I don't think we'll win if Donovan starts and has been Jekyll Donovan through 3 of the last 4 games. I do think we'll cover that spread.
My Homer guess is Tech 34-30
So this week, as much as last week sucked, I have OSU -7.1. Line opened at -13.5 and moved to -10.5 currently so I'd still take Tech. If the line was at 13.5 still, I probably would have teased OSU down just for the extra odds.
Why do I have Tech at -7.1? Because as vaunted as OSU's D is, through 5 games they are significantly worse than last years. Last years OSU D had an EPA of .046 and a rushing EPA of -.031. Means that if you were to run against them last year, it was a losing proposition. You could throw but it wasn't easy. This year, OSU D has an EPA of .126 and a rushing EPA of .005. Still tough to run but they are significantly easier to throw against with an passing EPA of .243.
Their offense is better than last years, but it's all passing with OSU O having a passing EPA of .461. So just like last week, but the opposite, if you can force them to run on offense you can have a good chance of shutting down the their O. Our offense is actually, from an EPA standpoint, better and more well rounded than OSU's O. It's also not as one dimensional, especially if we could feed the backs more (like we were doing in the second and third quarters).
Bottom line, I don't think we'll win if Donovan starts and has been Jekyll Donovan through 3 of the last 4 games. I do think we'll cover that spread.
My Homer guess is Tech 34-30
