For the record, I love the 4th down aggressiveness overall. I’m glad it’s a part of JM’s culture and game plan. As the program grows, the success rate will grow as well.
That being said, the 4th & 5 is aggravating me to no end. To the point I had to go back and chart Baylor's 2021 4th down attempts to see how they found success with this.
My main takeaway is Baylor was constantly going for it on 4th downs that were short and manageable, and at a way higher clip than Texas Tech has been this season (especially in their own territory).
They also, probably because they were a better team and not always behind in games, went for it in situations where they were winning or tied at a far higher clip.
Lots of data to go still for Texas Tech but here is what I found below. I’m sorry, JM, but I’m breaking the 24 hour rule.
In Joey I trust 100%.
*I excluded the 4th & 20 in OT vs UH*
*I excluded the 4th & 12 at EOG vs OSU*
**UPDATED AFTER TCU GAME**
It’s worth noting the only attempt by Baylor in their own territory over 3 yards was kind of similar to Tech’s 4th & 5
Baylor was down 14-17 with 8:06 left in 4Q. They went for it on 4th & 4 from their own 36! They didn’t convert. Luckily, their defense was able to force OSU into a punt. That punt also pinned Baylor’s starting position back at their own 6 which, in turn, forced a conservative 3 & Out punt back to OSU giving them a short field. OSU converts a 56 yd drive into a TD virtually sealing the game with 3:22 left.
In both situations, I wonder if field position for both Tech & Baylor would’ve been better decisions. The opponent’s typically go conservative in those end of game situations to protect their lead. The liklihood of another possession with good starting field position is probably pretty solid.
I know the analytics probably have a small percentage favor to go for it but does that mean there is a clear edge? Not necessarily, and the margins are really only captured over hundreds & thousands of reps.
The point of this is really learning/discussion purposes. This program is not a finished product and I think the 4th down analytics are included in that as well!
(Hope the graph formatted for everyone)
That being said, the 4th & 5 is aggravating me to no end. To the point I had to go back and chart Baylor's 2021 4th down attempts to see how they found success with this.
My main takeaway is Baylor was constantly going for it on 4th downs that were short and manageable, and at a way higher clip than Texas Tech has been this season (especially in their own territory).
They also, probably because they were a better team and not always behind in games, went for it in situations where they were winning or tied at a far higher clip.
Lots of data to go still for Texas Tech but here is what I found below. I’m sorry, JM, but I’m breaking the 24 hour rule.
In Joey I trust 100%.
*I excluded the 4th & 20 in OT vs UH*
*I excluded the 4th & 12 at EOG vs OSU*
**UPDATED AFTER TCU GAME**
| TECH 2022 | BU 2021 | |||
| TOTAL ATTEMPTS | 41 | 35 | ||
| TOTAL ATT < 3YDS | 20 | 49% | 77% | 27 |
| TOTAL ATT > 3YDS | 21 | 51% | 23% | 8 |
| TOTAL OWN TERRITORY | 13 | 32% | 34% | 12 |
| TOTAL OWN TERRITORY < 3 YDS | 7 | 54% | 92% | 11 |
| TOTAL OWN TERRITORY > 3 YDS | 6 | 46% | 8% | 1 |
| TOTAL OPP TERRITORY | 28 | 68% | 66% | 23 |
| TOTAL OPP TERRITORY < 3 YDS | 13 | 46% | 70% | 16 |
| TOTAL OPP TERRITORY > 3 YDS | 15 | 54% | 30% | 7 |
| WINNING OR TIED | 17 | [COLOR=%s]41%[/COLOR] | [COLOR=%s]83%[/COLOR] | 29 |
| LOSING | 24 | [COLOR=%s]59%[/COLOR] | [COLOR=%s]17%[/COLOR] | 6 |
| LOSING > 7 | 14 | 34% | 9% | 3 |
It’s worth noting the only attempt by Baylor in their own territory over 3 yards was kind of similar to Tech’s 4th & 5
Baylor was down 14-17 with 8:06 left in 4Q. They went for it on 4th & 4 from their own 36! They didn’t convert. Luckily, their defense was able to force OSU into a punt. That punt also pinned Baylor’s starting position back at their own 6 which, in turn, forced a conservative 3 & Out punt back to OSU giving them a short field. OSU converts a 56 yd drive into a TD virtually sealing the game with 3:22 left.
In both situations, I wonder if field position for both Tech & Baylor would’ve been better decisions. The opponent’s typically go conservative in those end of game situations to protect their lead. The liklihood of another possession with good starting field position is probably pretty solid.
I know the analytics probably have a small percentage favor to go for it but does that mean there is a clear edge? Not necessarily, and the margins are really only captured over hundreds & thousands of reps.
The point of this is really learning/discussion purposes. This program is not a finished product and I think the 4th down analytics are included in that as well!
(Hope the graph formatted for everyone)
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