I didn't have a chance to get to the boards the last few days, and this topic has already been buried. Forgive me for resurrecting the topic.
For starters, I'm over the game now and don't want to argue about that play specifically. I'd rather discuss the general mindset and philosophy behind the decision.
I did see where Level had said something to the effect of every football coach in America would have made the decision to kick. Perhaps this is true. But I immediately thought, "If my coach is going to do what every other meathead football coach in America would do, why do I need to pay him $3mm?" At some point, don't you want some critical thinking?
Baseball has done a great job of utilizing analytics to fine-tune player evaluations and in-game strategy. Football is still in the dark ages in this regard.
To me, the decision to kick or not in that situation was a bit of a mathematical exercise in expected return. You didn't have to factor in resulting field position because of the clock, and there was still an entire half left to be played so that eliminated some situational variables. Decision should have been probability of successful TD try multiplied by 7pts (assuming XP) vs. probability of successful FG try multiplied by 3 pts. It's up to the coach to consider those probabilities obviously. But I find it hard to believe this formula would not yield a TD try decision.
For starters, I'm over the game now and don't want to argue about that play specifically. I'd rather discuss the general mindset and philosophy behind the decision.
I did see where Level had said something to the effect of every football coach in America would have made the decision to kick. Perhaps this is true. But I immediately thought, "If my coach is going to do what every other meathead football coach in America would do, why do I need to pay him $3mm?" At some point, don't you want some critical thinking?
Baseball has done a great job of utilizing analytics to fine-tune player evaluations and in-game strategy. Football is still in the dark ages in this regard.
To me, the decision to kick or not in that situation was a bit of a mathematical exercise in expected return. You didn't have to factor in resulting field position because of the clock, and there was still an entire half left to be played so that eliminated some situational variables. Decision should have been probability of successful TD try multiplied by 7pts (assuming XP) vs. probability of successful FG try multiplied by 3 pts. It's up to the coach to consider those probabilities obviously. But I find it hard to believe this formula would not yield a TD try decision.
