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UPDATE: 4O9's Weekly Thoughts pres. by Open Door FA (Making Shots is Good, D Smith is Big, CWS Stuff, LIV Tour)

4O9to8O6Nback

"I retire from podcasting"- @T. Beadles
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Dec 30, 2015
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Tech Hoops Shooting Next Year

With Kerwin Walton hopefully in the fold, Tech basketball's transfers + Obanor will have 501 made threes on 1316 attempts in their careers. That's over 38% and would've ranked top 10 in the country last year. As a team, Tech shot 32% and was 250th in the country.

Tech's transfers + Obanor have attempted over 1400 half-court jumpers and scored approximately 1.05 points per jump shot over the last 3 seasons. 1.05 points/jumper would've ranked top 10 in the country ever since they moved the 3-pt line back a few years ago. Last year, Tech scored .91 points per jumper, which was 215th in the country.

I don't think those numbers will hold up for Tech next year. Big 12 defenses are legit. Plus, I think it's fair to say that Tech players spend more energy on defense than other schools and it probably has a marginal impact on our shooting.

But even accounting for some regression, those numbers are staggering. The sample size is enormous. The shooting efficiency is unbelievable. And the size & length of those shooters is impressive. This isn't like having 4 or 5 6'2 shooters from the Ivy league. We can put all of these returning shooters on the floor at the same time and be able to defend & rebound in this league.

We mentioned this on the last FHIP based on @A. Rosen's question, but the theme of this offseason will be whether we sacrificed defense for shooting and, if we did, whether that sacrifice was a net positive. At this point, it’s hard for me to believe we won’t be better than last year based on how improved the offense should be.

Donovan Smith is a Large Man

Joey McGuire told the 247 national guys that he expected Donovan Smith to be 245 pounds by the first game next year. 245 pounds! That’s what Cam Newton was listed at when the Panthers were in the Super Bowl. Joey doesn’t seem to be the kind of guy that speaks in hyperbole, so I’m inclined to believe him.

If we have a 245-pound QB, there’s no way he isn’t playing 7-10 snaps per game, even if Shough turns out to be the best QB on the team. I think back to the 2015 & 2016 offenses with Pat & Deandre, which were some of the best short yardage and red zone offenses in Tech football history, and most of that was because of Pat’s running ability.

I bet we see Kittley dust off some of the short yardage and red zone plays that he watched Kliff use in those seasons.

Managing Shough & Donovan (and even Behren) is going to be a tough task for any coach, much less a first-year college coach like Joey. Some of our insider posters will probably know the answer to this question, but does Kittley make those situational substitution decisions on his own? I bet he does. When it’s 3rd & 7 at midfield, and you pick up 5.5 yards to leave a 4th and short…. Personnel decisions have to be made fast. I would imagine Kittley will have authority to go with Donovan whenever he wants to.

CWS Stuff

If I’m correct, UT will not be an underdog unless they face Oregon State in the finals and the Beavers throw Cooper Hjerpe. It’s a combination of UT having a ridiculous lineup that we saw first-hand in Lubbock and UT catching a criminally easy draw to the CWS like they have the last 2 times they made it to Omaha.

OU is the real deal. In one of these weekly posts, I suggested taking them at 80/1 to win it all and I hope at least one person did. This is OU’s last 4 weekends:
  • Winning a series in Lubbock when Tech was foaming at the mouth for a chance to win or share the Big 12 title. They knocked Andrew Morris and Birdsell around unlike any team did all year.
  • 4-0 in the Big 12 tournament.
  • Win the Gainesville Regional.
  • Win the Super Regional in Blacksburg.
ND is just as hot as OU and Tech lost two 1-run games to them. Damn…

IMO, with the Matador Club paying baseball players in addition to football and basketball, Tech is going to be one of the few teams in the country that can compete with the SEC in terms of NIL $ going to college baseball.

NBA Championship Thoughts

Just kidding… who gives a **** about the NBA finals….

The Saudi Golf League

This stuff is fascinating to me. I feel like I flip flop every other day on whether to criticize guys that decide to go play there.

I also don’t really understand why the Saudis are dumping so much money into a pro golf tour. I get the concept of “sportwashing” – i.e., the thought that the Saudis will improve their image around the world by affiliating themselves with pro sports.

However, it seems like the opposite effect is happening. Prior to knowing about the LIV tour, Saudi Arabia would not have come up if someone asked me to list the worst countries in the world in terms of human rights violations.

But with the spotlight on them because of this golf tour, I’m getting flooded with reminders about Saudi transgressions.

With the amount of money to be made on that tour, I bet we see more and more golfers going to it.

Can someone tell me what to think about the LIV tour?
 
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