Win the Battle for the Oblong-Shaped Ball
Don't look now, but after turning over WVU on about a 1/3rd of their possessions Saturday, the Texas Tech defense is starting to come along in the turnover department. This is a massive development, as positive turnover luck going forward will make our defense one of the top 20 units in the country. Right now, it's top 4 in the conference in turnover rate.
Baylor has also developed a bit of the yips in the turnover department -- dead last in the conference, turning it over on almost 20% of their possessions.
I try to avoid using "win the turnover battle" in my 3 Keys post each week, because it's obvious and akin to saying "score more points than the other team." But with two teams as closely matched as this, it does feel like weird bounces of the ball may decide this game. The ball hit the ground multiple times in the WVU game, and we recovered all of them. None of those recoveries decided the game, because it was a total ass-kicking. But that probably won't be the case Saturday.
Behren needs to do a better job of holding on to the football when he's tackled. It's maybe one of the only critiques you could have of him through 2 starts.
Shapen has shown the propensity to throw it to the other team. When/if he does, we need to catch those balls. It would also be big for our DBs to go make plays on well-thrown balls like they did last Saturday. Some of those passes that Daniels made, I don't even know if he'd want them back -- our DBs just went up and made the play.
Whatever team has the most, highest-leverage turnovers will win this game. That's what it feels like, at least.
Will our Defensive Front Hold Up
Baylor OL & TE experience:
Connor Galvin - 3200 career snaps - 40+ starts at Left tackle
Jacob Gall - 2600 career snaps -- 33 career starts
Gavin Beyers - 1000 career snaps - 15 career starts
Grant Miller - 2300 career snaps - 35+ career starts
Ben Sims - 6'5 260 lb TE - 1600 snaps - 25+ career starts (on the field damn near every play)
Drake Dabney - 6'5 250 lb TE - 1000 snaps - 12 career starts (on the field more than any other WR except Hal Presley)
We haven't come close to playing a team with this much beef and experience up front that is dead-set on running the ball. Our defensive front is going to have to hold up big time, which they did last year against the same personnel, and that's very encouraging. But we got to do it again. Otherwise, this game will not go well for us.
Baylor is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry. They are scoring 5.35 points per drive that reaches the opposing 40-yard-line, which is good for 2nd best in the conference and one of the best in the country. It's because they line up in heavy formations and run the football.
The better job we do up front, the easier it should be to defend their play-action game. And it's not going to be easy. Jeff Grimes' wide zone scheme really stretches a defense horizontally. It's also just weird. No one else in the conference does it like him. It's their offensive identity. Defenses have to be disciplined because RBs will cut back frequently, and the play action stuff they run off of it is extremely effective.
Baylor's offense has been one of the most productive in the conference to this point -- maybe even the most productive. They've punted it on just 18% of their Big 12 possessions (the conference average is 32.7%).
We have to get some stops. And I think we will. But it would be nice to get them out of what they want to do. Stop the run inside the red zone. Get them behind schedule between the 20s. Make Shapen a traditional drop-back passer, instead of hitting guys wide open off of play-action fakes.
We held them to 3.5 yards per carry last year. A defensive performance like that probably wins this game.
We Need Kittley to be the Wizard he was Pegged to be this Off-season
I'm really not sure how effective our run game this week will be. It won't surprise me if we can't run it at all on traditional hand-offs like we've seen in other games this year.
Baylor's defense, while having some flaws, has also been really good at stopping the quick-pass horizontal stuff that everyone runs -- we do it more than most to supplement our run game and keep pass rushers at bay. WVU had no answer for it. Baylor thinks they do.
When some of our usual "stuff" isn't working on Saturday, we will need Kittley to manufacture yards and points in other ways. I don't know what it will look like, but my guess will be some of the quick throws over the middle we've been seeing the last 2 games, usually out of tempo.
There is a world where Baylor's offense is one of the best in the conference and they score 35+ points in a high-possession game. In that scenario, we're going to have to outscore them.
I have a lot of confidence in Kittley and our offense right now. 5x more than I did a month ago. Feels like we're getting better every week. And I think it's fair to believe that Kittley is figuring out the best way to move the ball with the strengths and weaknesses of our personnel. But now there's two weeks of game film on some of the adjustments he's made. And Dave Aranda and Ron Roberts have a shit-pile of experience defending offenses similar to ours.
Kittley decisively winning the scheme battle over Roberts/Aranda means we win this game.
Other Stuff
--- We want Monaray Baldwin to be out of the game. Aranda said this week he wouldn't be available to practice until Thursday. He has game-breaking speed, very similar to Myles Price. Over 20 yards per touch. Had almost 200 yards of offense against Oklahoma State. They hand him the ball on end-arounds, too.
---- We have to get the first first down. Get the tempo going. Listening to Baylor press conferences this week, their defense has identified this as their key of the week -- forcing 3 and outs.
Ryan left it all out on the field in everything he did. In his honor, we bring you Fields of Gold, so that others facing bone cancer can keep on playing. A portion of proceeds from every case sold is donated to The Little Warrior Foundation.
The Little Warrior Foundation's mission is to fund & find a lasting cure for childhood cancer, with a specific focus on Ewing's Sarcoma.
https://shop.summerlandwinebrands.com/Shop/Fields-of-Gold
@Saynotobarefoot
Don't look now, but after turning over WVU on about a 1/3rd of their possessions Saturday, the Texas Tech defense is starting to come along in the turnover department. This is a massive development, as positive turnover luck going forward will make our defense one of the top 20 units in the country. Right now, it's top 4 in the conference in turnover rate.
Baylor has also developed a bit of the yips in the turnover department -- dead last in the conference, turning it over on almost 20% of their possessions.
I try to avoid using "win the turnover battle" in my 3 Keys post each week, because it's obvious and akin to saying "score more points than the other team." But with two teams as closely matched as this, it does feel like weird bounces of the ball may decide this game. The ball hit the ground multiple times in the WVU game, and we recovered all of them. None of those recoveries decided the game, because it was a total ass-kicking. But that probably won't be the case Saturday.
Behren needs to do a better job of holding on to the football when he's tackled. It's maybe one of the only critiques you could have of him through 2 starts.
Shapen has shown the propensity to throw it to the other team. When/if he does, we need to catch those balls. It would also be big for our DBs to go make plays on well-thrown balls like they did last Saturday. Some of those passes that Daniels made, I don't even know if he'd want them back -- our DBs just went up and made the play.
Whatever team has the most, highest-leverage turnovers will win this game. That's what it feels like, at least.
Will our Defensive Front Hold Up
Baylor OL & TE experience:
Connor Galvin - 3200 career snaps - 40+ starts at Left tackle
Jacob Gall - 2600 career snaps -- 33 career starts
Gavin Beyers - 1000 career snaps - 15 career starts
Grant Miller - 2300 career snaps - 35+ career starts
Ben Sims - 6'5 260 lb TE - 1600 snaps - 25+ career starts (on the field damn near every play)
Drake Dabney - 6'5 250 lb TE - 1000 snaps - 12 career starts (on the field more than any other WR except Hal Presley)
We haven't come close to playing a team with this much beef and experience up front that is dead-set on running the ball. Our defensive front is going to have to hold up big time, which they did last year against the same personnel, and that's very encouraging. But we got to do it again. Otherwise, this game will not go well for us.
Baylor is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry. They are scoring 5.35 points per drive that reaches the opposing 40-yard-line, which is good for 2nd best in the conference and one of the best in the country. It's because they line up in heavy formations and run the football.
The better job we do up front, the easier it should be to defend their play-action game. And it's not going to be easy. Jeff Grimes' wide zone scheme really stretches a defense horizontally. It's also just weird. No one else in the conference does it like him. It's their offensive identity. Defenses have to be disciplined because RBs will cut back frequently, and the play action stuff they run off of it is extremely effective.
Baylor's offense has been one of the most productive in the conference to this point -- maybe even the most productive. They've punted it on just 18% of their Big 12 possessions (the conference average is 32.7%).
We have to get some stops. And I think we will. But it would be nice to get them out of what they want to do. Stop the run inside the red zone. Get them behind schedule between the 20s. Make Shapen a traditional drop-back passer, instead of hitting guys wide open off of play-action fakes.
We held them to 3.5 yards per carry last year. A defensive performance like that probably wins this game.
We Need Kittley to be the Wizard he was Pegged to be this Off-season
I'm really not sure how effective our run game this week will be. It won't surprise me if we can't run it at all on traditional hand-offs like we've seen in other games this year.
Baylor's defense, while having some flaws, has also been really good at stopping the quick-pass horizontal stuff that everyone runs -- we do it more than most to supplement our run game and keep pass rushers at bay. WVU had no answer for it. Baylor thinks they do.
When some of our usual "stuff" isn't working on Saturday, we will need Kittley to manufacture yards and points in other ways. I don't know what it will look like, but my guess will be some of the quick throws over the middle we've been seeing the last 2 games, usually out of tempo.
There is a world where Baylor's offense is one of the best in the conference and they score 35+ points in a high-possession game. In that scenario, we're going to have to outscore them.
I have a lot of confidence in Kittley and our offense right now. 5x more than I did a month ago. Feels like we're getting better every week. And I think it's fair to believe that Kittley is figuring out the best way to move the ball with the strengths and weaknesses of our personnel. But now there's two weeks of game film on some of the adjustments he's made. And Dave Aranda and Ron Roberts have a shit-pile of experience defending offenses similar to ours.
Kittley decisively winning the scheme battle over Roberts/Aranda means we win this game.
Other Stuff
--- We want Monaray Baldwin to be out of the game. Aranda said this week he wouldn't be available to practice until Thursday. He has game-breaking speed, very similar to Myles Price. Over 20 yards per touch. Had almost 200 yards of offense against Oklahoma State. They hand him the ball on end-arounds, too.
---- We have to get the first first down. Get the tempo going. Listening to Baylor press conferences this week, their defense has identified this as their key of the week -- forcing 3 and outs.
Ryan left it all out on the field in everything he did. In his honor, we bring you Fields of Gold, so that others facing bone cancer can keep on playing. A portion of proceeds from every case sold is donated to The Little Warrior Foundation.
The Little Warrior Foundation's mission is to fund & find a lasting cure for childhood cancer, with a specific focus on Ewing's Sarcoma.
https://shop.summerlandwinebrands.com/Shop/Fields-of-Gold
@Saynotobarefoot
