The Tech v. UH "opening line" thread is a lesson on why 90% of your college football bets should be made on Monday instead of 15 minutes before the game on Saturday. If you're betting on Saturday, when places like the Circa sportsbook are taking $100,000 bets on games, you are getting the worst of it. Trust me. But when you're betting on Monday, when the limits are small and the lines are moving like crazy, you actually have a chance of winning. My guy @Rolf C has Texas Tech +3.5 against UH, even though the line is Tech -3. That'll play. You're not going to ever sniff something like that betting on Saturday morning.

Big 12 Games

Texas Tech -3 v. Houston. I consider the Tech line to have "opened" at pickem. Just to make things easy, using whatever Circa opens up at makes the most sense, because they take the biggest bets. I guessed this line would be Tech -1.5, so not a huge surprise here. I do think this is a really rare situation when a team loses its starting QB and the line doesn't really move as a result of that news being made public. It's almost fair to say the line has moved in Tech's favor since that news came out. I bet the over and the total has been moved up quite a bit. I think both offenses are going to be effective. Their skill guys are for real and could give us serious problems. Kittley's pace was blistering and we should see it the full 60 minutes Saturday.

Alabama -20 v. Texas. Texas is apparently one of the best teams in the Big 12. Don't shoot the messenger, that's just what the gambling markets think since UT & OU have essentially the same odds to win the conference. Those same markets have Alabama as nearly a 3-TD favorite in Austin. It's unreal, honestly. The distance between the top 3-4 teams and the tier below them is enormous. It's almost like an FBS v. FCS type difference. It can't be good for the sport, as I have literally no interest in watching the Georgia's, Alabama's, Ohio State's donkey-punch teams. Apparently some people do, but not me.

In any event, this has to be one of the biggest underdog spots for UT at home in a long, long time. They are a ways away from competing in the SEC. Crazier things have happened, but it sure seems like they get destroyed here.

Iowa -3.5 v. Iowa State. Iowa's slap-fight with a directional Dakota school last Saturday has been well documented. Something like 23 total punts. I saw a Nebraska box score v. a Southland team where the score was 7-7 at halftime and Nebraska had snapped the ball 20 times on offense. It's hilarious that Iowa and Nebraska are part of the richest TV contract in the galaxy. Big 10 football sucks. I hope Iowa State rips their ass.

WVU -13 v. Kansas. Kansas is getting some respect here. They opened +17.5 some places and have been bet down to +13. It's very possible that they may not be terrible. Their QB is athletic, they have one of the best players in the conference on defense, and their coach seems to be admired by all. I'm not quite sure if I'm buying Kansas yet, but very interested to watch this one. A Kansas win in Morgantown could result in Neal Brown's head on a spike.

BYU -3.5 v. Baylor. This will be a good one. BYU must be good because Baylor is a respected team in the betting markets. This one opened BYU -2.5 and was bet up up to -4. I bet BYU -2.5 after seeing the number started to tick up to -3. We want BYU to win this one, right? Yeah. F*ck Baylor.

Oklahoma State -11 v. Arizona State. This line hasn't really moved much since opening.

Kansas State -8 v. Mizzou. No real thoughts here. Hope K-State wins.

OU -32.5 v. Kent State. Who cares.

TCU -37 v. Tarleton. Snooze.....

Other Games

North Carolina -7.5 at Georgia State. I continue to be intrigued by North Carolina. Mack Brown hires Gene Chizik to fix his defense, a guy who has been out of the game and shit-posting on the internet about politics for the last 5 years, then Chizik proceeds to get 60 points hung on him by App. State. Now North Carolina is traveling to Georgia State for what could be back-to-back weeks of giving a former FCS team the biggest home game in its progrum's history. Fascinating. I have a bet on North Carolina -7.

UTSA -2.5 v. Army. I'm extremely tempted to tickle UTSA -2.5 here because they looked extremely athletic against UH last Saturday. Their DL gave UH's OL fits the entire game and their WRs were consistently winning battles against UH's secondary. That should translate against Army, who will always be a strange matchup because of the triple. In any event, UTSA has to be the most athletic non-American G5 team in the country. We'll see... I'm looking for any excuse to bet UTSA.

Texas State -14 v. FIU. Texas State is terrible. They played one of the worst teams in the country last week (Nevada), were favorites on the road, and they got whipped 14-38. Spavital is in deep trouble. Now they get to play a Yost-OC FIU team that is even worse than Nevada. I must be sick in the head because this game interests the hell out of me.

La Tech -? v. SFA. You know who's really laid an egg this year? SFA and Colby Carthel. They lost huge as a TD favorite to Sterling "Shittin' All Over the Place" Galban and Jacksonville State in week 1, and then they got beat by freakin' Alcorn State last week as 2+ TD favorites. Now they have to play their FBS game against La Tech, and Sonny Cumbie probably doesn't want his offense to get punked by Carthel & SFA again the way it did last year. Outside of a 7-yard slant to Ezukanma that he took to the house, Cumbie's offense put up less 100 yards through the air v. SFA. It was turrible.

What games do yall find interesting?

Bets that I've made:

Arky/SC O52.5 -110
Duke/NW O54.5 -110
UT +20 -105
UNC -7 -110
Wake/Vandy O60.5 -110
Colorado +17 -110
Aggy -16.5 -110
UVA +5 -110
Tech/UH O63.5 -110
UH +3 -105
Liberty +6 -110
SJSU / Auburn U50.5 -110
BC/Va Tech U45.5 -110
UTEP -13.5 -105
BYU -2.5 -110
Fresno St. +1 -110

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@Saynotobarefoot

Season 7 of Shetland is in full swing. Been way too long! I imagine this is the final season. End transmission.

He’s having a damn good season

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Are recruits invited or are they allowed to attend midnight yell? If so...do their parents attend with them? What parent in their right mind would allow their son or daughter to attend this university after witnessing such behavior?

Us and Oklahoma State are tied for the conference championship.
In our game with them OSU (at OSU) scores twice unanswered to make it 41-34 with 27 seconds left. On the ensuing kickoff we return it for a TD and now the score is 41-40 and now 17 seconds left and they have no timeouts.
Are you going for 2?

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Seeing reports of an active shooter. Please no.

I was honestly pretty shocked that they didn't list NC State -10.5 as one of the best bets. Unfortunately I could easily see a 2 TD+ loss for the good guys. Last time we played there we lost 49-21 despite doubling them in yardage and moving the ball at will between the 20s, but that's what going for it on 4th down on your own side of the field repeatedly will do for you. Tech won't have that problem this time, but we'll likely have plenty of issues protecting Donovan. I don't know much about NC State yet, but I have seen two different analysis that list Defensive LInemen and Offensive Linemen prominently in their Top 10 best players. No RBs or WRs, just linemen.

Might be worth me placing a bet on NC State just to insure that Tech covers it. I'm sometimes very philanthropic when it comes to betting against Tech -- they almost always do exactly what I bet against.

But enough about a game that isn't in the Top 3 Best Bets for the week! And I take that as a tremendous compliment; hoping it means NC State has as many question marks as we do.
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As far as the Top 3 picks go, two of these three are really surprising to me. KU +10 yes but Nebraska and Texas? No way.

Nebraska just lost their coach, has looked terrible against marginal to bad competition, yet it's a Best Bet to take them on a line that is surprisingly low? Then again Tech kinda took off last year after Wells was given his walking papers midseason. But I think this is a trendy pick because OU looked underwhelming in the first half against Kent St. This is a rivalry game for the fans but not for the players and I imagine OU will run away with it if for no other reason than their D getting turnovers on a consistent basis.

Kansas +10 at UH I'd take all day. I don't expect that daunting atmosphere of 16k screaming fans to factor much into it, not with 24k empty seats mixing in. And UH had way too many unforced errors against us. Given UH's mental state after choking in their game with us I wouldn't be surprised to see KU take them to the woodshed.

And Texas -11 against UTSA just seems like a complete trendy, bandwagon bet. UT isn't exactly the mentally toughest program around historically, so facing a giant-killing team that is actually pretty good after an emotional loss seems like a recipe for disaster. Even without considering UT being down a QB I'd have a hard time taking them against that line. I wouldn't be shocked if UTSA won this straight up, but win or lose I expect them to keep it too close for comfort. The Texas Country Club atmosphere is probably been busier coddling players this week than warning them about potentially getting their asses beat by one of their hyphenated family schools. Texas can't lose to Texas-San Antonio can they?

Big 12 Week 3 Top Picks​

Nebraska +11.5 ★★★​

It’s not comfortable to back a Cornhuskers squad that's lost eight of its last nine games, including a 45-42 Week 2 humiliation at home to Georgia Southern that finally cost head coach Scott Frost his job. But coaching changes tend to spark underachieving teams, at least in the short term. That's why we should expect a determined Nebraska effort when the Sooners come to town.

As bad as the Huskers’ record was under Frost, they’ve been a consistent moneymaker in the underdog role, covering during seven of their previous eight contests when catching points. Nebraska has also scored 28-plus points during all three of its 2022 outings. That scoring ability should keep the school in the game against an Oklahoma offense that's been sputtering at times.

A lot of the value in this line has disappeared throughout the week after Nebraska opened as +14.5 dogs. But I’m still comfortable pulling the trigger at 10.5 or better. You can also find the Cornhuskers' moneyline at +340 through DraftKings. That's worth considering against an Oklahoma team that we’ve seen slip up in hostile road environments before.

Kansas +10 (-110) ★★★★★​

We successfully backed the Jayhawks in Week 2 as two-touchdown underdogs in West Virginia, and they rewarded us with an outright victory. There’s no reason not to go back to the well in Week 3 when Kansas faces a Houston squad that hasn’t really proven it’s worthy of laying double digits against a decent Power 5 opponent.

Kansas has now covered during five straight matchups going back to the 2021 season, and the school leads the nation while averaging 55.5 points per game. Sure, an emotional letdown is always a concern after a significant road upset. But the Jayhawks avoided one in 2021 after their shocking win at Texas, nearly upsetting TCU the following week as 21-point pups.

Meanwhile, Houston is coming off a pair of overtime games to start the season, losing 33-30 in Week 2 at Texas Tech after opening with a 37-35 win over UTSA. Back-to-back OT games can take a mental toll, and the Cougars might be tempted to exhale a bit with Kansas coming to town. That would be a mistake considering the Jayhawks' recent improvement.

Texas -11 ★★★★​

Injuries to starting quarterback Quinn Ewers and backup Hudson Card give us the opportunity to back Texas at a discounted price. There's also hangover potential for the Longhorns after an emotional one-point loss to Alabama in Week 2.

I’m happy to grab the bargain and take a Longhorns squad that should have beaten the No. 1 team in the nation if it had been more effective in the red zone (or if a safety wasn't overturned following a debatable roughing-the-passer call).

Card was under center for most of the game in Week 2. But Texas still moved the ball throughout the contest while gaining 25 first downs, though the Longhorns settled for field goals on four of their five scoring drives.

Ewers is out until late October, and Card might need to sit too with an ankle injury. But no matter who’s the signal-caller, Texas should be able to move the ball on the ground against a UTSA defense that ranks 113th in the nation in points allowed per game.

Texas’ defense should take it the rest of the way after allowing just 16 first downs against the Tide. Expect the Longhorns to improve to 9-1 against the spread over their last 10 non-conference outings.

I posted this on the ticket forum and was advised to place it here as there is more traffic.

I know this may be a long shot. With the 2:30pm kickoff time being announced, I am looking for four (4) Club level seats (either side) for the Texas game. I know the demand for these tickets is high. I am trying to help out a family member. He will pay cash if you would like.

Any help would be appreciated.

On ESPN or ABC.

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What's up guys! Popping in from the national team this morning.

Was out at Lake Belton versus Red Oak last night in a matchup that was headlined by 5-star WR Micah Hudson. Lake Belton won an overtime thriller -- on a Hudson touchdown.

Hudson certainly backed up his five-star status with two touchdowns in the game. He's so smooth and makes it look effortless with his route running.

Anyways, after the game, I caught up with him to get some insight on where his recruitment stands. He noted that he is pretty open and is wanting to check out different schools. He's in Austin today.

On Tech, he made it known that the Red Raiders feel like family.

"They want me a lot. A lot of people say that, but it is actually family," Hudson said. "They're constantly calling me. Constantly checking on me. They've kept building the relationship and not just go away, like some other schools."

Credit Brian Nance and Joey McGuire. Both have done an excellent job recruiting Hudson, along with the rest of the staff.

Long way to go, but Tech has positioned themselves nicely for the elite wideout.

Since Level took his new job, and Dickens has been MIA... Last game week we didn't have a matador report, nor post game report...

I'm not going to pay for a subscription to read a bunch of whiny basterds complain...

Pretty damn significantly better! @4O9to8O6Nback knows all about EPA (expected points added) but to give you an idea of how much better Donovan was than Tune:

Donovan was involved in 69% (nice) of Techs offensive plays and added a total of 13.7 points (7.2 rushing and 5.5 passing)

Tune was involved in 61% of Houston’s plays and added 3.9 total points (0.6 rushing and 3.3 passing)

Basically, tune sucks and Donovan was really good and clutch.

Also, if you reran that game with the same plays in different order, Tech has a 77% chance to win because we really did dominate the game.

thank you www.collegefootballdata.com for the info.

Considering going there to watch the game Saturday. Have any of y’all thrown a few back there before? Looks like a cool venue.
The Tailgate

I remember some on this board wanted Tech to offer this kid out of Lubbock Cooper. Based on Twitter activity, he appears to be transferring from Air Force and he and Cumbie started following each other. I imagine he’d be a walk on here, but would gladly welcome him given how highly he was regarded in HS by some posters on this board.

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Looking to get away in May with the wife. Would like to relax, eat and drink really well and hopefully a quality round of golf. What’s the best y’all got?

Amazing this needs to be reinforced, but for F’s sake, we have to police our own here. Don’t let your seat neighbor do dumb things.

This stuff embarrasses me more than rushing the field ever will.

I only post this because I’m watching JM’s press conference and it’s in his opening statement so you know it’s serious and a concern.

Adrian Frye and Weston Wright are game-time decisions.

LB Moore, Chad Townsend and Jordan Brown are back this week.

We were just the feature on Scott Van Pelt’s Bad Beats…one of my favorite segments of the week