TCU -7 at Kansas
Arguably a battle of the worst schedules played to date in the Big 12, which is probably why College Gameday is there this week. Both teams are in the 50s range nationally in terms of toughest schedule played.
To say that TCU looks good on paper would be an understatement. Offensively, they are gaining over 8 yards per play (#2 in the country). Scoring almost 2x as many points per drive as Texas Tech. However, as mentioned above, they have not played a tough schedule from a defenses-faced standpoint. And that won't change this week. Kansas' defense has been porous, ranking 80th or worse in points per drive, available yards percentage, and yards per play.
TCU's offense gained over 500 yards in the first half against OU. 500 plus yards. In one half of football. Over 11 yards per play. A balanced attack, too. 50/50 run to pass. 8 guys ran the football, 10 guys caught a pass. It's shocking that Max Duggan didn't win that job out of fall camp. They looked like an unstoppable force against an OU defense that is hemorrhaging TD drives.
TCU's defense caught a bit of a break by knocking Dillon Gabriel out of the game. They still would've won, for sure. But OU punted or turned it over on downs 5 straight possessions after Gabriel went out.
Meanwhile, Kansas is.... *sigh*.. I still don't think they're that good. I've said it a couple times now, and they just keep winning. They have a respectable offense, no question. But I don't know how they keep replicating what they're doing to win football games. They score around 10 points for every 100 yards gained. It's insane. Tech would be 5-0 with 5 double-digit wins if we were pulling shit like that.
Prediction: TCU 38, Kansas 27
Texas -7 v OU
Davis Beville is from Greenville, South Carolina. His only P5 offer out of HS was Pitt, where he attempted 32 passes in 3 years and was slated to be 3rd string for the 2022 season. Instead, he transfers to OU and apparently beat out a highly-touted FR in Nick Evers and one mythical General Booty for the back-up QB spot. He's a big m'fer. 6'5+ 230ish pounds.
Now OU is saying that all 3 QBs are taking reps in the lead up to Saturday's game.... I don't know about you guys, but I'm going to guess Venables trots out Beville over two guys that have never played a snap of college football.
But, man... Beville's in some shit come Saturday, with UT's offense gearing up to score 40... 50... 60 points? It's going to be the first start of his career and UT has some really disruptive guys up front. OU won't be able to just lean heavily on running the ball.
Part of me wonders if, had the Tua head injury stuff not happened this past week, if Dillon Gabriel would be giving it a go for OU on Saturday. Maybe so.
This was a game over the summer that had OU -3 or so favorites. Without Gabriel and with OU's defense battling an apparent meth addiction, UT is the biggest favorite that it's been in this game in years, meaning OU is staring at an 0-3 start to conference play.
Meanwhile, UT took care of business last Saturday against WVU in impressive fashion, showcasing what's (in my opinion) the best offense in the Big 12. They've played a difficult schedule, lost a QB, didn't have Worthy for a half against us, and have still put up 7.5 yards per play on the season (top 10 in the country).
This could be a blood bath. I should've bet UT -6.5. Probably should still take it at -7. The only reason I haven't bet it yet is (1) I can't shake the sense that weird things happen in this game, and (2) there seems to be some hope that Gabriel might play.
Prediction: Texas 40, Oklahoma 26
Kansas State -2.5 at Iowa State
Farmageddon. One of the coolest rivalry names in college football but a pretty boring match-up in general, if you ask me.
Kansas State is better than I thought they would be. Based on the last few weeks' lines, the betting market is essentially saying that Kansas State is equal to both Oklahoma State and Baylor. That's not something I was expecting coming into the season. And I don't think it's a result of Baylor or Oklahoma State under-performing their own expectations. Kansas State is just solid, all around. Good defense and a couple playmakers on offense. They do struggle, however, to throw the football. And that's a big limiting factor for them offensively.
It shouldn't be that big of an issue on Saturday, though, as they will be facing what is, clearly, the worst offensive team in the Big 12 in Iowa State (some bloke at Iowa State is probably saying that about us right now). 11 points on 11 drives against Kansas is... not good. Even if they convert all the FGs they attempted, it's still not good.
Iowa State's defense, on the other hand, is really good. It's just a revolving door of guys on that side of the ball and 7th-year defensive coordinator, Jon Heacock, has them playing at a high level every year. It makes me sick. I don't know how they've held on to him this long.
This certainly feels like a tough spot for Kansas State, with them looking really good in back-to-back weeks but now playing on the road against a team that just lost to Kansas. This is a great "buy low (bet on Iowa State) / sell high (bet against Kansas State)" spot. Plus, we all know the fans in Ames bring the ruckus no matter what the situation might be, which I respect a ton.
Prediction: Iowa State 23, Kansas State 21
Other Games:
Only one non-Big 12 game is particularly interesting to me.
USC -13 v. Washington State
Eric Morris is going to be a hot name pretty soon. He got what appears to be a first-round draft pick QB to go to Incarnate Word and then follow him to Washington State. That's damn impressive. They throw it a lot. And they move the football up and down the field (top 25 in yards per play). Interesting match-up with him versus Lincoln Riley, although I imagine USC will be able to name their score. I wish I would've bet Caleb Williams to win the Heisman at some point over the last few months.
Bets I've made thus far:
Mizzou +12 -105 at Florida
Georgia State -25 -105 v. Georgia Southern
Ohio State -25 -110 at Michigan State (Michigan State is so bad)
Arizona State +14 -115 v. Washington
BYU +4 -105 v. Notre Dame
UL Monroe +14 -105 v. Coastal Carolina
Oregon -12.5 -105 at Arizona
Oregon / Arizona Under 71 -110
Sideline Provisions "Banger" of the Week:
We are 1-1 on these after UT boat-raced West Virginia last week.
Kentucky -6 or -6.5 against South Carolina. I have a little -6 -110 but more on -6.5 -105.
This is an injury play. I think Will Levis is playing. If he was 100% known to be playing in this game, the line would be Kentucky -7.5 or more. In fact, I think the line does end up closing there, which means it's a great candidate for the Sideline Provisions Banger of the Week.
Big shout-out to Sideline Provisions for sponsoring degenerate content. They are the real MVPs and the official apparel provider of Redraidersports.com
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
Arguably a battle of the worst schedules played to date in the Big 12, which is probably why College Gameday is there this week. Both teams are in the 50s range nationally in terms of toughest schedule played.
To say that TCU looks good on paper would be an understatement. Offensively, they are gaining over 8 yards per play (#2 in the country). Scoring almost 2x as many points per drive as Texas Tech. However, as mentioned above, they have not played a tough schedule from a defenses-faced standpoint. And that won't change this week. Kansas' defense has been porous, ranking 80th or worse in points per drive, available yards percentage, and yards per play.
TCU's offense gained over 500 yards in the first half against OU. 500 plus yards. In one half of football. Over 11 yards per play. A balanced attack, too. 50/50 run to pass. 8 guys ran the football, 10 guys caught a pass. It's shocking that Max Duggan didn't win that job out of fall camp. They looked like an unstoppable force against an OU defense that is hemorrhaging TD drives.
TCU's defense caught a bit of a break by knocking Dillon Gabriel out of the game. They still would've won, for sure. But OU punted or turned it over on downs 5 straight possessions after Gabriel went out.
Meanwhile, Kansas is.... *sigh*.. I still don't think they're that good. I've said it a couple times now, and they just keep winning. They have a respectable offense, no question. But I don't know how they keep replicating what they're doing to win football games. They score around 10 points for every 100 yards gained. It's insane. Tech would be 5-0 with 5 double-digit wins if we were pulling shit like that.
Prediction: TCU 38, Kansas 27
Texas -7 v OU
Davis Beville is from Greenville, South Carolina. His only P5 offer out of HS was Pitt, where he attempted 32 passes in 3 years and was slated to be 3rd string for the 2022 season. Instead, he transfers to OU and apparently beat out a highly-touted FR in Nick Evers and one mythical General Booty for the back-up QB spot. He's a big m'fer. 6'5+ 230ish pounds.
Now OU is saying that all 3 QBs are taking reps in the lead up to Saturday's game.... I don't know about you guys, but I'm going to guess Venables trots out Beville over two guys that have never played a snap of college football.
But, man... Beville's in some shit come Saturday, with UT's offense gearing up to score 40... 50... 60 points? It's going to be the first start of his career and UT has some really disruptive guys up front. OU won't be able to just lean heavily on running the ball.
Part of me wonders if, had the Tua head injury stuff not happened this past week, if Dillon Gabriel would be giving it a go for OU on Saturday. Maybe so.
This was a game over the summer that had OU -3 or so favorites. Without Gabriel and with OU's defense battling an apparent meth addiction, UT is the biggest favorite that it's been in this game in years, meaning OU is staring at an 0-3 start to conference play.
Meanwhile, UT took care of business last Saturday against WVU in impressive fashion, showcasing what's (in my opinion) the best offense in the Big 12. They've played a difficult schedule, lost a QB, didn't have Worthy for a half against us, and have still put up 7.5 yards per play on the season (top 10 in the country).
This could be a blood bath. I should've bet UT -6.5. Probably should still take it at -7. The only reason I haven't bet it yet is (1) I can't shake the sense that weird things happen in this game, and (2) there seems to be some hope that Gabriel might play.
Prediction: Texas 40, Oklahoma 26
Kansas State -2.5 at Iowa State
Farmageddon. One of the coolest rivalry names in college football but a pretty boring match-up in general, if you ask me.
Kansas State is better than I thought they would be. Based on the last few weeks' lines, the betting market is essentially saying that Kansas State is equal to both Oklahoma State and Baylor. That's not something I was expecting coming into the season. And I don't think it's a result of Baylor or Oklahoma State under-performing their own expectations. Kansas State is just solid, all around. Good defense and a couple playmakers on offense. They do struggle, however, to throw the football. And that's a big limiting factor for them offensively.
It shouldn't be that big of an issue on Saturday, though, as they will be facing what is, clearly, the worst offensive team in the Big 12 in Iowa State (some bloke at Iowa State is probably saying that about us right now). 11 points on 11 drives against Kansas is... not good. Even if they convert all the FGs they attempted, it's still not good.
Iowa State's defense, on the other hand, is really good. It's just a revolving door of guys on that side of the ball and 7th-year defensive coordinator, Jon Heacock, has them playing at a high level every year. It makes me sick. I don't know how they've held on to him this long.
This certainly feels like a tough spot for Kansas State, with them looking really good in back-to-back weeks but now playing on the road against a team that just lost to Kansas. This is a great "buy low (bet on Iowa State) / sell high (bet against Kansas State)" spot. Plus, we all know the fans in Ames bring the ruckus no matter what the situation might be, which I respect a ton.
Prediction: Iowa State 23, Kansas State 21
Other Games:
Only one non-Big 12 game is particularly interesting to me.
USC -13 v. Washington State
Eric Morris is going to be a hot name pretty soon. He got what appears to be a first-round draft pick QB to go to Incarnate Word and then follow him to Washington State. That's damn impressive. They throw it a lot. And they move the football up and down the field (top 25 in yards per play). Interesting match-up with him versus Lincoln Riley, although I imagine USC will be able to name their score. I wish I would've bet Caleb Williams to win the Heisman at some point over the last few months.
Bets I've made thus far:
Mizzou +12 -105 at Florida
Georgia State -25 -105 v. Georgia Southern
Ohio State -25 -110 at Michigan State (Michigan State is so bad)
Arizona State +14 -115 v. Washington
BYU +4 -105 v. Notre Dame
UL Monroe +14 -105 v. Coastal Carolina
Oregon -12.5 -105 at Arizona
Oregon / Arizona Under 71 -110
Sideline Provisions "Banger" of the Week:
We are 1-1 on these after UT boat-raced West Virginia last week.
Kentucky -6 or -6.5 against South Carolina. I have a little -6 -110 but more on -6.5 -105.
This is an injury play. I think Will Levis is playing. If he was 100% known to be playing in this game, the line would be Kentucky -7.5 or more. In fact, I think the line does end up closing there, which means it's a great candidate for the Sideline Provisions Banger of the Week.
Big shout-out to Sideline Provisions for sponsoring degenerate content. They are the real MVPs and the official apparel provider of Redraidersports.com
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
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